Cloud computing’s future lies in our past


Stand by, this post is a bit whimsical…

 

There is a great debate happening on Yammer in our company.  It all started with me posting the RWW survey about private and public clouds. For the technorati this is multidimensional, highly contentious issue


So far we’ve had arguments about:

  • How the economics will win out and everything will be public
  • How, in a philanthropic sense, cheap computing is a good thing and we should all benefit from it.
  • How what is good for end users, isn’t always good for us
  • How risk of public clouds will outweigh benefits so private will dominate

 

You get the idea..

 

Now, I’m unashamedly am a high level guy. Mark Suster’s great post on top down thinking kind of sums me up. Except I kind of apply some additional rules…

 

  1. The path of least resistance will always prevail
  2. There is nothing new under the sun (or history repeats – what ever rings your bell)

 

Sounds lazy, but it’s a good framework… I also try really hard to remember rule 3

 

  1. One day you will be surprised and rule 2 won’t hold..

 

Sorry, digressing. The point of this is cloud computings future is kind of predictable.

 

Try to look at cloud computing from the top down…have a go at removing any philosophy bias. Really let go of the technology  (technology X and mash up Y and shiny factor Z) actually don’t matter…they are just turns on the journey.

 

Now look for historical likeness, where have you seen this pattern before? 

 

Rail, roading, electricity, shipping, telecommunications, the internet, grocery stores, banking (particular the US)…

 

Now what do you see…

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